Probability of Investment from Country C Given High Annual Return

We can use Bayes' theorem to solve this problem:

P(C | >5%) = P(>5% | C) * P(C) / P(>5%)

where P(C | >5%) is the probability that the investment comes from Country C given that the annual return is greater than 5%, P(>5% | C) is the probability that the annual return is greater than 5% given that the investment is from Country C, P(C) is the proportion of investments in Country C, and P(>5%) is the overall probability that the annual return is greater than 5% .

We can calculate each of these probabilities as follows:

P(>5% | C) = 7% P(C) = 100% - 30% - 30% = 40% P(>5%) = P(>5% | A) * P(A) + P(>5% | B) * P(B) + P(>5% | C) * P(C) = 15% * 30% + 10% * 30% + 7% * 40% = 11.8%

Plugging these values into the formula, we get:

P(C | >5%) = 7% * 40% / 11.8% ≈ 23.73%

Therefore, the probability that the investment comes from Country C given that the annual return is greater than 5% is approximately 23.73%.