Probability of Investment Originating from Country C with High Returns
We can use Bayes' theorem to solve the problem:
P(C|>5%) = P(>5%|C) * P(C) / [P(>5%|A) * P(A) + P(>5%|B) * P(B) + P(>5%|C) * P(C)]
We are given that P(>5%|A) = 0.15, P(>5%|B) = 0.10, and P(>5%|C) = 0.07. We are also given that P(A) = 0.30 and P(B) = 0.30, so P(C) = 1 - P(A) - P(B) = 0.40.
Substituting these values into the formula, we get:
P(C|>5%) = 0.07 * 0.40 / [0.15 * 0.30 + 0.10 * 0.30 + 0.07 * 0.40] ≈ 0.318
Therefore, the probability that the investment comes from Country C given that the annual return is greater than 5% is approximately 0.318 or 31.8%.
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