请优化以下论文的前言部分优化得更具有逻辑性和学术性最后落脚在华北平原研究问题Winter wheat faces not only the challenge of water conservation but also the need to cope with increasing climate change According to Ray et al 2015 more than 60

Winter wheat, as one of the most important staple crops, is facing the dual challenges of water conservation and climate change. Climate variability has been identified as a major factor affecting the yield variability of major breadbasket regions worldwide (Ray et al., 2015). For instance, some of the crucial global wheat breadbaskets, such as those in Australia and the Great Plains states of the United States, have shown high coefficient of variation in yields (A et al., 2013). It has been projected that global wheat production may decrease by 30% by mid-century due to climate change (Ray et al., 2012). Moreover, simulations of wheat yields in Australia have revealed that a 2 ℃ warmer than average temperature could reduce yields by up to 50% (Ritchie et al., 1991). Similarly, temperature variations have been found to be the major factor affecting wheat yields in India, where a sudden rise in temperature in 2010 resulted in forced ripening and lowered yields (Gupta et al., 2010). In addition, dry and hot winds during the filling period have been found to cause rapid senescence and death of winter wheat, leading to lower filling rates (Wang et al., 2018). In the North China Plain, minimal irrigation has been shown to cause significant yield fluctuations (Gao et al., 2022). Given the critical importance of winter wheat as a global food source, there is an urgent need for more research to investigate the effects of diverse water management combined with weather conditions on yield variation in winter wheat. Therefore, this study aims to explore the impact of water management and climate change on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain, which plays a vital role in China's wheat production.