Predicting Hospital Antibiotic Usage Intensity Using the GM (1.1) Model: Implications for Rational Use Management

Title: Establishment of GM (1.1) Model to Observe and Predict Hospital Antibiotic Usage Intensity for Expanding Rational Use of Antibiotics Management Measures

Abstract: Objective: The aim of this study was to establish a GM (1.1) model to observe and predict the intensity of antibiotic usage in a hospital, in order to expand rational use of antibiotics management measures. Methods: The intensity indicators of antibiotic usage in Chengdu Seventh Hospital from the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2022 were accumulated and differentiated, followed by matrix transposition to obtain the GM (1.1) mathematical model function. The predicted values were then compared and analyzed with the actual values using the residual ratio. Results: The residual ratio (C) was 0.2731, indicating a model accuracy of 1. The predicted values were closely aligned with the actual values, suggesting the suitability of the GM (1.1) model for analyzing antibiotic usage intensity. Discussion: Considering the influence of antibiotic management policies, rational use indicators, and changes in hospital disease spectrum, the intensity of antibiotic usage should be regarded as a core indicator for rational use of antibiotics control. The findings of this study can serve as theoretical support for the selection, procurement, and supply of antibiotic catalogs, as well as adjustments in rational use of antibiotics management measures.