Overpopulation: Is It A Real Problem or Just A Myth?

Argument A: A Problem By ecologist Dr. Alexander J. Rice 1 In 2011, the population of the world reached seven billion people. The UN Population Division (2015) predicts the number could be as high as 9.7 billion by 2050; that is an extra two billion people—the same number of people who currently reside in the African and American continents combined—living on the Earth using its resources to survive. This is hard to conceive. 2 Although families are getting smaller, people are living longer because medical and technical advances have lessened the impact of infectious disease. As a result, the UN's worst-case scenario for 2100 is that the world population will reach almost 16 billion (UN, 2011). That is more than twice the number of people we have today. And yet already we are placing undue pressure on the Earth—the kind of pressure that, if increased, could have a profound and irreparable effect on our planet. 3 The first fundamental issue is water. Just 2.5% of the world's water is fresh, with much of that caught up in polar ice caps (University of Michigan, 2000). Drought and poor infrastructure mean that already today water is a scarce resource. Over seven hundred million people lack access to clean water (WHO, 2013), and one in three people in every continent do not have enough water to satisfy their daily needs (WHO, 2009). Without clean drinking water, there will be an exponential increase in the incidence of diseases such as cholera and typhoid, which will undoubtedly place an excessive strain on healthcare systems. Without water for agriculture and industry, our food and manufacturing industries will be unable to satisfy demand. Already today, 10% of people consume foods which have been irrigated using waste water full of chemicals or germs (WHO, 2009). Should water become even scarcer, this is likely to grow further. 4 The second critical issue is land. Current agricultural practices and the impact of pollution both contribute to soil erosion and a decreased level of soil fertility. It is estimated such poor quality land affects 1.5 billion people around the world (UNCCD, 2011). Deforestation and mining have had a devastating impact on our ecosystem and the biodiversity on which it thrives. The WWF (n.d.) estimates that we may be losing 10,000 species a year. All of this affects the number of crops that can be grown and produces greater food insecurity. How can we allow such environmental degradation to occur under our noses? 5 Another prime concern is energy. Governments, such as those in Denmark and Germany, are investing in renewable energy to eliminate their reliance on oil and to tap into resources with greater sustainability. However, the number of road vehicles reached one billion in 2010 (WardsAuto, 2011), an increase of 20 million from the previous year, and is continuing to increase. It is therefore likely that there will be an unprecedented demand for oil over the next 50 years, pushing prices to exorbitant levels. This will make it more difficult for people to afford food, heating, and other manufactured goods, placing more people into poverty. 6 Overpopulation is not a problem for one country or continent; it is a problem for all of us. The UN (2012) estimates that by 2030 the world will need 50% more food, 30% more water, and 45% more energy than it does today. We must stop burying our heads in the sand and make a sustained effort to reduce population growth. We must develop a coherent strategy that will increase access to education for all. Not only is education a fundamental human right, it also facilitates a reduction in population growth. Large families tend to be prevalent in developing countries and yet when men, women, and children in these areas receive education, family sizes shrink. The UN estimates that in less developed countries where women are not educated, they have twice as many children as in those countries where women are educated. It is therefore this area in which we should invest time and money. Who can argue with free and equal education for all?

Argument B: A myth By environmentalist Marilyn Cratchley 1 It is true that the world's population is growing, but this is not the cause of our current and future global problems. Believing this will give rise to ignorance of the real problem and the resulting irreparable damage to our planet. 2 Let me start by explaining why overpopulation is a myth. The UN Population Division regularly predicts population growth, but provides a low variant, medium variant, and high variant to factor in various possibilities. In the 2010 revision, their high variant suggested that the world population would be almost 16 billion in 2100, but the low variant predicted it would peak at 8 billion and decrease to just over 6 billion by 2100. In most cases, it is the low variant that has come true in the past, suggesting the same will be true of their future population predictions. Furthermore, the size of families is actually decreasing. The average woman now has 2.4 children (World Bank, 2015), which is very close to the replacement level of 2.3. In many countries, the fertility rate is even lower. 3 For the Earth to be overpopulated, there needs to be insufficient food, water, and space for humans to live. Indian economist Raj Krishna estimates that India alone is capable of increasing crop yields to the point of providing the entire world's food supply. The World Food Programme (n.d.) confirms that there is sufficient food grown to feed the world and there is the same amount of fresh water on the planet now as there was 10,000 years ago; it has simply been redistributed. So how is it possible that the number of people in the world is impacting on our planet? 4 It is not an increase in population that is a dire threat. It is an increase in consumption. Materialism and overconsumption are facts of life for everybody in the Western world, as possessions reflect a person's status in society and people strive to obtain happiness through owning the latest fashionable goods. Not only that, but waste is a widespread occurrence which has a huge impact on our resources. In addition, our current consumption is imbalanced, unsustainable, and estimated to be 30% higher than the Earth can regenerate (LaTouche, n.d.). It is a sad truth that 80% of the world's resources are currently used by just 20% of the world's population (UN, 2008), which means that a fifth of us use four-fifths of the world's food and energy. 5 Our overconsumption must be addressed now to make our lives more sustainable and avoid continuing the abhorrent damage to the environment we appear to be causing. With more countries set to generate greater wealth, there is bound to be an exponential increase in overconsumption in the future, so we must be prepared today. The key is education. The more people understand about the consequences of their materialism, the fewer resources they are likely to consume. Attitudes must be changed if our consumption habits are to change. We must not let ourselves be misguided. If we focus on the wrong issue and do not work towards this, we may find ourselves living on a planet that can no longer provide for all of us, or worse, can no longer sustain human life at all.

What is the author's opinion on population growth in Argument A?

The author in Argument A believes that population growth is a serious problem.

Overpopulation: Is It A Real Problem or Just A Myth?