Spatial Spillover Effects of Intelligent Development on Human Capital Mismatch: Evidence from a Spatial Durbin Model

Table 12 presents the estimation outcomes of the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). To mitigate potential estimation bias in the point estimates, we decompose the total effect and present the direct and indirect effects of each explanatory variable. The direct effect pertains to the overall impact of intelligent development on human capital mismatch within the region, while the indirect effect captures the spatial spillover effect, i.e., the effect of intelligent development on human capital mismatch in the adjacent region.

Our results show that the direct effect of intelligent development on human capital mismatch is consistently negative across all three weight matrices. However, the indirect effect is positive under the geographical correlation model but negative under the economic correlation model. This suggests that intelligent development can significantly enhance local human capital mismatch, but neighboring regions may experience negative consequences. Nevertheless, intelligent development within the same economic development region can benefit from the positive outcomes of improved human capital mismatch.