Spatial Spillover Effects of Intelligent Development on Human Capital Mismatch: Evidence from a Spatial Durbin Model

Table 12 presents the estimation outcomes of the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). To mitigate potential estimation bias in the point estimates, we perform a decomposition analysis and explicitly report the direct and indirect effects of each explanatory variable. The direct effect represents the overall impact of intelligent development on human capital mismatch within the region, whereas the indirect effect captures the spillover effect of intelligent development on human capital mismatch in neighboring regions. Our findings indicate that the direct effect of intelligent development on human capital mismatch is consistently negative across all three weight matrices. However, the indirect effect is positive under the geographic correlation model and negative under the economic correlation model. This implies that while intelligent development can significantly enhance local human capital mismatch, it may also have negative spillover effects on neighboring regions. Nonetheless, in the same economic development regions, intelligent development can lead to positive outcomes in human capital mismatch.