Can Humanity Handle Uncertainty? Exploring the Role of Organizational Management
It's uncertain whether this is commonly discussed, but there's one issue that hasn't been properly addressed: can humanity deal with uncertainty? Based on experience and traditional methods, deterministic events are easy to handle. For instance, in traditional agricultural societies, the elderly are respected and considered to have the most experience. They know what will happen and listening to their advice won't lead to losses. Probabilistic events require the use of insurance mechanisms. One type of insurance is provided by insurance companies, which calculate the probability of various events occurring and pay compensation when they do. The second type is used by commercial banks, which mortgage assets to prevent losses in case the borrower cannot repay the loan. To deal with uncertainty events that cannot be inferred from experience, human beings have accumulated a wealth of knowledge over a long period of time. I believe that the most important tool and mechanism for dealing with market uncertainty is organizational management.
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