Impact of Temperature Anomaly and Spring Frost on Crop Yield Loss: A PCA Analysis

This study investigates the relationship between temperature anomaly, spring frost intensity, temperature fluctuation, and duration of spring frost on crop yield loss using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The change in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) indicates a close relationship between the yield loss of crops and these four impact factors. PCA analysis suggests that the intensity of spring frosts is caused by the temperature anomaly. Furthermore, it reveals that the temperature anomaly not only affects the intensity of spring frosts but also increases yield loss. Numerous studies have shown that an increase in temperature anomaly leads to a decrease in crop yield, which aligns with our conclusion (Liu et al., 2016; Lobell, 2003).

However, an analysis of the factors influencing the intensity of spring frosts finds that temperature fluctuation could actually reduce yield losses. This may be because an increase in temperature difference reduces the duration that crops are exposed to low temperatures, thereby minimizing the damage caused by spring frosts. On the other hand, an increase in temperature fluctuation can lead to more unstable weather conditions during the occurrence of spring frosts, which is detrimental to crop growth and can result in reduced yield, as supported by literature (Frieler et al., 2017). Additionally, temperature fluctuation is projected to trigger and exacerbate more extreme low-temperature events (Gu et al., 2008; Li et al., 2015b).

Moreover, the longer the duration of spring frosts, the more unfavorable it is for plant growth and ultimately leads to yield reduction. Previous studies have demonstrated that an increase in the duration of spring frosts leads to a greater spread of ice-nucleation throughout the ear, resulting in plant damage, which supports our findings (Barlow et al., 2015).

Our research highlights the complex interaction between temperature anomaly, spring frost intensity, temperature fluctuation, and duration of spring frost on crop yield. The findings underscore the importance of considering these factors in climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture, particularly in regions susceptible to spring frost events.