Impact of Spring Frosts on Crop Yield: An Analysis of Temperature Anomaly, Intensity, and Duration

The change in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) indicates a strong correlation between crop yield loss and four impact factors, including temperature anomaly (TA) and other factors not specified in the text. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveals that the intensity of spring frosts is significantly influenced by temperature anomalies. Furthermore, temperature anomalies not only affect the intensity of spring frosts but also contribute to increased yield loss. This finding aligns with previous research by Liu et al. (2016) and Lobell (2003), which demonstrated that higher temperature anomalies result in lower crop yields.

Interestingly, analysis of factors influencing spring frost intensity suggests that one unspecified factor could potentially reduce yield losses. This may be attributed to an increased temperature difference reducing the duration of exposure to low temperatures, thus minimizing the damage inflicted by spring frosts. However, increased temperature fluctuation can lead to more unstable weather conditions during the occurrence of spring frosts. This instability is detrimental to crop growth and can lead to reduced yields, as supported by Frieler et al. (2017).

Furthermore, temperature fluctuation is projected to trigger and exacerbate more extreme low-temperature events, as demonstrated by Gu et al. (2008) and Li et al. (2015b). It is also evident that the longer the duration of spring frosts, the more detrimental the impact on plant growth, ultimately leading to reduced yields. This finding is corroborated by research from Barlow et al. (2015), which showed that increased duration of spring frosts leads to a greater spread of ice-nucleation throughout the ear, causing significant plant damage.