Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield in Northeastern China: A Correlation and Regression Analysis

Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield in Northeastern China: A Correlation and Regression Analysis

Northeastern China, comprising the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning (NTPC), is a crucial rice production hub in China, contributing over 60% of the country's marketable Japonica rice. Given the substantial rice consumption in China, understanding the potential effects of climate change on rice yields in this region is of paramount importance.

This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of climate data from 79 meteorological stations and rice yield records spanning from 1960 to 2009 in NTPC. The analysis employed correlation and regression techniques to explore the relationship between rice yield anomalies and various climate factors, including monthly mean, anomalies in minimum and maximum temperatures during the rice-growing season (May-September), and the introduced accumulated deficit temperature unit (ADUn).

The results demonstrated a significant correlation between rice yield and ADUn anomalies during the growing season. Notably, ADUn models explained a substantial portion of the variability in rice yield, accounting for 59.2%, 40.3%, 39.8%, and 54.1% of the yield in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and the average of the three provinces, respectively. This indicates the considerable impact of ADUn anomalies on rice production in NTPC.

Furthermore, the study simulated the response of rice yield to future climate change scenarios. The simulation results highlight the potential for substantial impacts on rice production in the region due to climate change, emphasizing the need for adaptive measures to mitigate the negative effects on agricultural productivity and food security.