Spring Phenophase Advancements in Temperate Monsoon Regions of China: Trends and Implications

Our results confirm that the spring phenophase events of plants in the temperate monsoon area of China have occurred increasingly earlier over the past several decades, which is in accord with previous studies focused on other phenophases (Ge et al. 2011, Dai et al. 2012, 2013, Wang et al. 2012). The advanced trends of spring events in China are also consistent with phenological trends in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere (Matsumoto et al. 2003, Menzel et al. 2006, Schwartz et al. 2006). The phenological trends were, however, found to have varied between different species and phases. According to previous studies (Menzel et al. 2006, Bai et al. 2011, Doi 2012), earlier phenophases advanced a greater number of days than later ones under the same warming scenarios. This divergence explains why the frost risk decreased more (i.e. the frost index increased more) for the phenophases with lower frost resistance, since later phenophases are usually associated with lower frost resistance (as Table 1 indicates).