Increasing Intensity of Spring Frosts Threatens Global Food Security Despite Declining Frequency

Increasing Intensity of Spring Frosts Threatens Global Food Security Despite Declining Frequency

While global warming is expected to reduce the frequency of spring frosts, their intensity is increasing, leading to greater yield losses in major crops and threatening global food security. This study analyzed temperature data, global production data for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat from 1981 to 2016, and global temperature anomaly data to assess the impact of spring frost on crop yield.

The results showed a decrease in the number of spring frost events due to global warming. However, the yield loss of crops impacted by these events has increased over time. Corn's yield loss increased by 5.63 percentage points, from 1.36% to 6.99%. Soybean's yield loss rose from 12.32% to 15.01%, and winter wheat's yield loss increased from 16.42% to 18.99%.

The study also defined intensity factor indices - temperature difference, temperature fluctuation, and duration of spring frost events - to measure the intensity of these events. It found that these indices increase with temperature anomaly and are positively correlated with crop yield loss.

Multiple linear regression and principal component analysis suggested that temperature anomaly not only increases the intensity of spring frost but also exacerbates yield loss when combined with intensity factors such as temperature fluctuation and duration of spring frost events. However, temperature difference was found to decrease yield loss.

These findings highlight the complex relationship between climate change and spring frost events. While the frequency of these events might decrease, their increasing intensity poses a significant threat to global food security. This underscores the urgent need for adaptation strategies and agricultural practices that can mitigate the impact of these extreme weather events and ensure stable crop yields in a warming world.