Spring Frost Intensity and its Impact on Crop Yield: A Global Analysis in the Context of Climate Change

Spring frost is an extreme weather event that can have significant impacts on food security. However, the intensity and effects of spring frosts on crops, particularly in the context of global warming, are not well understood. To address this gap, we analyzed temperature data, global production data for three major crops (corn, soybeans, and winter wheat) from 1981 to 2016, and global temperature anomaly data to assess the impacts of spring frosts on crop yield. We also developed intensity factor indices, including temperature difference, temperature fluctuation, and duration of spring frost events, to measure the intensity of spring frost events.

Our analysis revealed that the number of spring frost events has decreased due to global warming, but the yield loss of crops impacted by spring frosts has increased from 1981-2001 to 1986-2016. Specifically, corn's yield loss increased by 5.63 percentage points, from 1.36% to 6.99%, soybean's yield loss rose from 12.32% to 15.01%, and winter wheat's yield loss increased from 16.42% to 18.99%. We also found that the intensity factor indices increase with temperature anomaly and are positively correlated with crops' yield loss. Additionally, our multiple linear regression and principal component analysis revealed that temperature anomaly not only increases the intensity of spring frosts but also exacerbates yield loss in conjunction with intensity factors such as temperature fluctuation and duration of spring frost events, while temperature difference decreases yield loss.

These findings are crucial for evaluating the impacts of climate change on food security.