Global Warming Intensifies Spring Frost Impacts on Crop Yields

Spring frost is an extreme weather event that can significantly impact food security. However, the effects of global warming on the intensity of spring frosts and their impact on crops are not well understood. This study analyzed temperature data and global production data for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat from 1981 to 2016 to assess the impact of spring frost on crop yield. Intensity factor indices were developed to measure the severity of spring frost events. Results showed that while the number of spring frost events has decreased due to global warming, the yield loss of crops impacted by spring frosts has increased. Specifically, corn's yield loss increased by 5.63 percentage points, soybean's yield loss rose from 12.32% to 15.01%, and winter wheat's yield loss increased from 16.42% to 18.99%. The study also found that intensity factor indices increase with temperature anomaly and are positively correlated with crop yield loss. Our analysis suggests that temperature anomaly, along with intensity factors such as temperature fluctuation and days of duration of spring frost events, exacerbate the yield loss. These findings are important for understanding the impact of climate change on food security.