根据倒推法,从时刻T-1开始,保险公司的决策问题可以表示为:

$max_{\pi_{T-1}, q_{T-1}} E[U(W_T)]$

$s.t. W_T = (W_{T-1} - \pi_{T-1})r_{T-1} + \pi_{T-1}R_{T-1} + c_{T-1} - \delta(q_{T-1}) - q_{T-1}z_{T-1}$

其中,再保险策略为$\delta(q_{T-1}) = (1+\theta_{T-1})(1-q_{T-1})\alpha_{T-1}$。

根据一阶最优化准则,我们可以得到以下两个最优化条件:

$\frac{\partial J}{\partial \pi_{T-1}} = E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} \frac{\partial W_T}{\partial \pi_{T-1}}] = 0$

$\frac{\partial J}{\partial q_{T-1}} = E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} \frac{\partial W_T}{\partial q_{T-1}}] = 0$

对第一个条件求导,我们可以得到:

$E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (R_{T-1} - r_{T-1})] = 0$

根据再保险策略$\hat{q}_{T-1}$的定义,我们可以将上式改写为:

$E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (R_{T-1} - r_{T-1})] = E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (\hat{\pi}{T-1} - \pi{T-1}) \prod_{i=T}^{T-1} \frac{1}{r_i \gamma \beta_{T-1}^2}] = 0$

移项可得:

$\pi_{T-1} = \hat{\pi}{T-1} - \frac{1}{E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (R{T-1} - r_{T-1})] \prod_{i=T}^{T-1} \frac{1}{r_i \gamma \beta_{T-1}^2}}$

对第二个条件求导,我们可以得到:

$E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (-z_{T-1} - \frac{\partial \delta(q_{T-1})}{\partial q_{T-1}})] = 0$

根据再保险策略$\hat{q}{T-1}$和保费率$\delta(q{T-1})$的定义,我们可以将上式改写为:

$E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (-z_{T-1} + \frac{\theta_{T-1} \alpha_{T-1}}{(1+\theta_{T-1})(1-\hat{q}{T-1})\alpha{T-1}})] = 0$

移项可得:

$q_{T-1} = \hat{q}{T-1} - \frac{1}{E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (-z{T-1} + \frac{\theta_{T-1} \alpha_{T-1}}{(1+\theta_{T-1})(1-\hat{q}{T-1})\alpha{T-1}})]}$

综上所述,保险公司在时刻T-1的值函数为:

$J(\pi_{T-1}, q_{T-1}) = E[U(W_T)]$

其中,

$W_T = (W_{T-1} - \pi_{T-1})r_{T-1} + \pi_{T-1}R_{T-1} + c_{T-1} - \delta(q_{T-1}) - q_{T-1}z_{T-1}$

$\delta(q_{T-1}) = (1+\theta_{T-1})(1-q_{T-1})\alpha_{T-1}$

$\hat{q}{T-1} = \frac{\theta{T-1} \alpha_{T-1}}{\prod_{i=T}^{T-1} r_i \gamma \beta_{T-1}^2}$

$\hat{\pi}{T-1} = \frac{\mu{T-1}-r_{T-1}}{\prod_{i=T}^{T-1} r_i \gamma \sigma_{T-1}^2}$

$\pi_{T-1} = \hat{\pi}{T-1} - \frac{1}{E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (R{T-1} - r_{T-1})] \prod_{i=T}^{T-1} \frac{1}{r_i \gamma \beta_{T-1}^2}}$

$q_{T-1} = \hat{q}{T-1} - \frac{1}{E[\frac{\partial U(W_T)}{\partial W_T} (-z{T-1} + \frac{\theta_{T-1} \alpha_{T-1}}{(1+\theta_{T-1})(1-\hat{q}{T-1})\alpha{T-1}})]}

下列是已知条件:考虑下面的离散有限时间T期模型假设无风险资产在第t期即时间段tt+1的收益率为r_t风险资产在第t期即时间段tt+1的收益率为R_t t=01⋯T-1。假设保险公司的初始财富为w_0令pi_t表示保险公司在时刻t投资于风险资产的财富额剩下的财富投资于无风险资产c_t表示保险公司在时刻t所收取的保费z_t为其在时刻t所需支出的索赔金额z_t和R_t相互独立且假定z_t在各阶段的期望和

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