A Framework for Assessing Wildfire Risks and Prioritizing Interventions in Protected Areas: Integrating Socio-economic and Ecological Values

In recent decades, the Mediterranean basin has experienced a significant increase in both the frequency and severity of wildfires, leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic impacts. Protected areas are particularly susceptible to these fires, with many of the characteristics underpinning their legal protection under threat. While numerous studies have investigated mitigating wildfire risks within protected areas, they often focus solely on natural heritage losses. This study addresses this gap by proposing a comprehensive framework for action that integrates natural, social, and economic components, grounded in adaptive wildfire resilience approaches.

Using the Vesuvius National Park, impacted by wildfires in 2017, as a case study, this paper proposes a two-phase framework:

(i) Identification of priority intervention areas: This phase utilizes spatial multicriteria decision analysis to identify areas requiring immediate attention and resource allocation.(ii) Damage assessment: This phase employs a monetary approach to value ecosystem services (ESs) and quantify the economic impact of wildfire damage, including losses in areas adjacent to the burnt zones.

The results highlight priority areas for concentrating economic and material resources and provide valuable insights into the economic value of ESs lost due to wildfires. By integrating environmental science and policy considerations, this work underpins a medium to long-term development planning process. Ultimately, this framework aims to support holistic landscape management and planning, incorporating socio-economic components for sustainable development measures in fire-prone protected areas.