Predicting the Future of Taxus: Climate Change Impacts on Habitat Suitability and Conservation Strategies in China

The Taxus genus, an endangered species native to China, plays a vital role in the ecosystem and holds significant medicinal value due to its potent anticancer properties. However, the lack of comprehensive research on the spatiotemporal dynamics of its habitat hampers effective conservation efforts. This study utilizes climate, topographic, and soil data to predict the suitable habitat for the Taxus genus in present and future China, employing optimized MaxEnt and GARP models. We assess the influence of environmental factors on its distribution, determining their threshold ranges and analyzing the spatial pattern changes under climate change scenarios (CMIP6). The findings reveal that the most suitable areas for the Northeastern Taxus, Chinese Taxus, Southern Taxus, Yunnan Taxus, and Tibetan Taxus are estimated at 4.7×10⁴km², 23.34×10⁴km², 21.64×10⁴km², 9.32×10⁴km², and 8.8×10⁴km², respectively. Crucial environmental factors impacting their distribution include soil types (brown coniferous forest soil, yellow-brown soil, dark brown soil, and cinnamon soil), the coldest month's lowest temperature (Bio6: -7-3℃), the driest month's precipitation (Bio14: >33mm), the coldest month's lowest temperature (Bio6: -8-6℃), and temperature annual range (Bio7: 22-26℃). Under climate change, the high suitability areas for the Taxus genus exhibit a declining trend, with the Northeastern Taxus facing the most significant decline, raising concerns about its potential extinction. Yunnan Taxus and Tibetan Taxus are migrating towards higher latitudes and lower altitudes, while the Northeastern Taxus, Chinese Taxus, and Southern Taxus are shifting towards higher altitudes along the east-west longitude. This study provides a critical reference for the long-term in situ and ex situ conservation of endangered plants, aiming to mitigate the impact of climate change on the distribution of the Taxus genus, facilitate the recovery of endangered plant populations, and ensure biodiversity protection for sustainable development.